Multiple extreme climate events at the same time may become the new normal 

Heatwaves, droughts and forest fires are some of the extreme climate-related events that are expected not only to become more frequent but also to increasingly strike at the same time. This finding emerges from a new study led by Uppsala University, in which researchers have mapped the impact of climate change in different regions of the world. 

In a new study published in the journal Earth’s Future, researchers from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Swedish, French and German universities have shown that in the near future several regions of the world will no longer just be affected by isolated climate-related events. Instead, several different events will occur concurrently or in quick succession.   

“We have long known, for example, that there will be more heatwaves, forest fires and severe droughts in many regions – that in itself is no surprise. What surprised us is that the increase is so large that we see a clear paradigm shift with multiple coinciding extreme events becoming the new normal,” says Professor Gabriele Messori from Uppsala University and lead author of the study. 

Using models to predict the future climate – temperature, rainfall, wind and so on – is a common method in climate research. Recently, researchers have gone a step further by feeding that data into additional models that deliver information on the concrete impact on society. By calculating the effect of climate change on, say, the risk of forest fires or floods, a clearer picture emerges of how different regions of the world might actually be affected. “After pilot testing over the East African region, we now applied this analysis globally and examined what will happen between 2050 and 2099. We look specifically at six types of events: floods, droughts, heatwaves, forest fires, tropical cyclone winds and crop failures. What we see is a very worrying result of co-occurring extremes worldwide” says Derrick Muheki, Doctoral Researcher at the VUB and co-author on the study. 

Heatwaves and forest fires a recurrent feature 

The study shows that combinations of heat waves and forest fires will increase sharply in almost all regions of the world, except where there is no vegetation, as in the Sahara. Heatwaves and droughts will become a recurrent feature in areas such as the Mediterranean region and Latin America. Areas that now generally experience isolated events, such as the Nordic countries, will also be more frequently affected by heatwaves and forest fires in combination. 

“The summer of 2018 in Northern Europe was characterized by unusually high temperatures and widespread forest fires – which at the time was regarded as an exceptional event. In a few decades, it may not be so unusual,” says Messori.  

The researchers’ analysis covers several possible emission scenarios. However, the main focus is on a medium-high scenario, which is considered realistic given current emission trends. 

“We see this strong shift in the co-occurrence of climate extremes even in scenarios that are relatively optimistic in terms of emission reduction. It shows that we must prepare today for the new climate reality that we will face in the future. In light of the upcoming COP30, this highlights all the more how important it is to have strong, fast and deep cuts in global carbon emissions now, so as to lessen the climate burden on young and future generations.” Says Wim Thiery, Professor climate science at the VUB and co-author of the study.  

Source:

Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., & Thiery, W. (2025). Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325 

Contact  

Prof. Dr. Wim Thiery: wim.thiery@vub.be +32 2 629 30 29 

https://bsky.app/profile/wimthiery.bsky.social 

Dr. Marie Cavitte marie.cavitte@vub.be  +32 470 19 24 15